| Futures trader and author Grant Noble looks to | | | | turned very bullish on the grain markets at the |
| the mass news media in order to garner signals | | | | end of April ... and the media was telling me that it |
| of major market bottoms or tops. Only, he looks | | | | was time to look for a top," Noble said. |
| to the media with a contrarian perspective. | | | | "You want to see the USA Today that has a |
| Noble gained his first introduction to the futures | | | | cover about coffee," Noble said, explaining the |
| industry when he worked as a retail commodity | | | | type of media story he looks for. "In April 1994 |
| broker in the late 1970s. "I saw every which way | | | | there was a big article in Newsweek about high |
| people could lose money, and I thought not | | | | technology stocks ... so many media publications |
| enough people were making money. I've spent | | | | were saying how terrible the stock market is, and |
| the last 15 to 16 years trying to figure it out," | | | | you've seen a 50% rise in a two-year time." |
| Noble said. | | | | Noble said. |
| Noble currently said he is not conducting any | | | | "What I'm trying to do with the media is to pick |
| futures trading-"there are times when I relax | | | | tops and bottoms ... you can do this with a couple |
| from trading?" But he still has plenty of current | | | | hours a day and you don't have to watch the |
| market opinions. He authored the book Traders | | | | screen," Noble said. |
| Fdge, published in late 1994. | | | | Currently, Noble has turned bullish on the U.S. bond |
| His basic strategy is to act in a contrarian fashion | | | | market, which has tumbled sharply for most of |
| to the messages of the major news media. "If | | | | 1996. "Bonds are starting a six-month rally," he |
| the American media is screaming it's a horrible | | | | said, "with a minimum objective of 117 even (in |
| time to buy stock-I buy stocks," Noble said. "The | | | | the bond futures contract) Basically, we've had a |
| media seem to unfailing know when there is a top | | | | lot of thrashing of the bond market. There have |
| or bottom-it is the best contrarian indicator," he | | | | been at least 10 to 15 negative stories in the past |
| added. | | | | few weeks,"' Noble said, explaining his rationale. |
| "My trading approach is that ... I think the markets | | | | On the U.S. equity market, Noble said, "we |
| are relatively easy to call over a three- to | | | | continue to have the Wall Street Journal talking |
| five-month period ... people have to find a system | | | | about the stock market- there have been 30 to |
| that will take advantage of long-term trends," | | | | 40 stories talking about how overvalued stocks |
| Noble said. | | | | are ... short term, this is a good buy signal, and |
| "The New York Times came out at the end of | | | | over the next two to three months we should |
| April with a big front-page story on wheat. That | | | | see stocks move higher," Noble speculated. |
| was the topping day in wheat ... The media had | | | | |