| Most people never forget their first love. I'll never | | | | enterprise.Call it foresight, or hindsight if you want |
| forget my first trading profit! But the $600 (1970 | | | | to be argumentative, but a long-term view of the |
| dollars) I pocketed on Royal Dutch Petroleum was | | | | Investment Process eliminates the guesswork and |
| not nearly as significant as the conceptual | | | | points pretty clearly toward a trading mentality |
| realization it signaled! I was amazed that someone | | | | that keys on the natural volatility of hundreds of |
| would pay me that much more for my stock | | | | Investment Grade Equities. During corrections, |
| than the newspaper said it was worth just a few | | | | consider these simple truths: 1) although there are |
| weeks earlier! What had changed? What had | | | | more sellers than buyers, the buyers intend to |
| happened to make the stock go up, and why had | | | | make money on their purchases, 2) so long as |
| it been down in the first place? Without ever | | | | everything is down, don't worry so much about |
| needing to know the answers, I've been trading | | | | the price of individual holdings, 3) fast and steep |
| RD for thirty-six years!Looking at scores of | | | | corrections are better than the slow attrition |
| similarly profitable, high quality companies in this | | | | variety, 4) always accept even half your normal |
| manner, you would find that: (1) most move up | | | | profit target while buying opportunities are |
| and down regularly (if not predictably) with an | | | | plentiful, 5) don't be in a rush to fill your portfolio, |
| upward long-term bias, and (2) that there is little if | | | | but if cash dries up before it's over, you are doing |
| any similarity in the timing of the movements | | | | it "correctly".Most of the problems with Mutual |
| between the stocks themselves. This is the | | | | Funds and much of the increased opportunity in |
| "Volatility" that most people fear and that Wall | | | | Individual Stock trading are functions of growing |
| Street loves them to fear. It can be narrowly | | | | non-professional Equity ownership. Everyone is in |
| confined to certain sectors, or much broader, | | | | the stock market these days whether they like it |
| encompassing practically everything. The broader | | | | or not, and when the media fans the emotions of |
| it becomes, the more likely it is to be categorized | | | | the masses, the masses create volatility that |
| as either a rally or a correction. Most years will | | | | rarely under-reacts to market conditions! Rarely |
| feature one or two of each. This is the natural | | | | will unit owners take profits, particularly if they |
| condition of things in the stock market, Mother | | | | have to pay withdrawal penalties or taxes. Even |
| Nature, Inc. if you will. Don't take her for granted | | | | more unusual are expert advisors who encourage |
| when she gets high, and never ignore her when | | | | investors to move into the markets when prices |
| she feels low. Embrace her volatile moods, work | | | | are falling.A volatile market creates opportunities |
| with them in whatever direction they travel, and | | | | with every gyration, but you have to be willing to |
| she will become your love as well!Ironically, it is | | | | transact to reap the benefits. A necessary first |
| this natural volatility (caused by hundreds of | | | | step is to recognize that both "up" and "down" |
| variables human, economic, political, natural, etc.) | | | | markets are forces of nature with abundant |
| that is the only real "certainty" existent in the | | | | potential. The proper attitude toward the latter, |
| financial markets. And, as absurd as this may | | | | will make you much more appreciative of the |
| sound until you experience the reality of it all, it is | | | | former. Most investment strategies require |
| this one and only certainty that makes Mutual | | | | answers to unanswerable questions, in an effort |
| Funds in general (and Index Funds in particular) | | | | to be in the right place at the right time. |
| totally unsuitable as investment vehicles for | | | | Indecisiveness doesn't cut it with Mamma... in or |
| anyone within seven to ten years of retirement! | | | | out too soon is not an issue with her. But wasting |
| How many Mutual Fund investors have retired | | | | the opportunities she provides really ticks her off! |
| recently with more liquid financial assets than they | | | | Successful investment strategies require an |
| had seven years ago, way back in 1999?There | | | | understanding of the forces of nature, and |
| will always be rallies and corrections. In fact, it is | | | | disciplined rules of portfolio management. If you |
| worthwhile to "go back to the future" to establish | | | | can transition back to individual securities, you will |
| a realistic Investment Strategy. In the last forty | | | | do better at moving toward your goals, most of |
| years, there have been no less than ten 20% or | | | | the time, because the opportunities are out there... |
| greater corrections followed by rallies that brought | | | | all of the time.So let's adopt some new rules for |
| the market to significantly higher levels. The DJIA | | | | this investment game and learn to live with them |
| peaked at 2700 before its record 40% crash in | | | | for a few cycles: Let's buy good stocks new and |
| 1987. But at 1700, it was still 70% above the | | | | old at lower prices during corrections. Let's take |
| 1000 barrier that it danced around with for | | | | reasonable profits on those that go up in price, |
| decades before... always a higher high, rarely a | | | | whenever they are kind enough to do so. Let's |
| lower low. The '87 debacle was followed by | | | | examine our performance based on the results of |
| several slightly less exciting corrections, but the | | | | these trading transactions alone and at market |
| case was being made for a more flexible, and | | | | cycle examination points for a smiley faced |
| realistic, Investment Strategy. Mutual Funds were | | | | change of pace. And one other thing...Let's drink a |
| spawned by a Buy and Hold Mentality; Mother | | | | toast to Mother Nature, her uncertainty, her |
| Nature, Inc is a much more complicated | | | | volatility, and, of course, to our first loves. |